Off Off Analysis

Since this is an Off Off Year election, I offer a quick Off Off Analysis.

The first thing I think we all need to realize is that the situation for the Republicans was so awful in 2008 that there was little reason to think it could get much worse.  It had to get better for them.  In the stock market, they call it the Dead Cat Bounce.  As in, even a dead cat bounces when dropped from high enough.

Thus, I think it's inevitable, but silly to over-interpret the victories by Republicans in narrowly held states like the Virginia governor race.  Deeds was long thought to be not such a great candidate on the Democrats' side, and thus the "intensity" was higher on the Republicans' side.  So the Republican wins.  The New Jersey governor's race was, I think, more meaningful and encouraging to the Reps.  But we could come back with counterexamples, such as the CA 10th district, where the Great Republican Upset just didn't come close to materializing.  And, of course, there's NY 23, where Republican party dynamics have been shaken, but the result is the election of a Democrat in a seat that has been held by the Reps since the 1870s.

So, just like sports teams never are as good as they look when on a winning streak, nor as bad as they look on a losing streak, the Dems' advantage over the Reps that gave us the 60/40 senate and the current House is not as large as that "winning streak" - based largely on the bad economy and Bush-hatred - would imply.

The result in Maine on Question 1 is very disappointing of course.  While there are no moral victories, the race is getting closer and closer.  Same sex marriage has won.  The only question is whether that win will come 2 years from now or 20.  How many more years must we wait for generational change, or will enough people be actually persuaded to move that issue now?  In Washington, where the question was not explicitly over same sex marriage, but in reality was, there was a narrow victory.  (The Washington measure assured full state rights to unmarried domestic partners, obviously mainly targeted at same-sex couples.)

NYC Marathon: map and memories

The NYTimes has a pretty cool interactive map of the New York Marathon course.

Of course, I'm not running it this year, but it made me think about the course and the race.  Some memories:

• The pre-race "infinite pee trough" in the holding pen that can be seen by the trains going by.  (Or at least could be a long time ago...)
• The first mile up the bridge coming out of Staten Island.  All uphill, but you never notice with all the people around you.  It took me 3.5 minutes to get to the starting line in my first race, and there were no timing chips, so my 3:30 finish was only recorded on my watch...It was 3:33:30 or so in the books.
• The second mile down the bridge.  Can you believe a bridge is 2 miles long?  The crowd thinned for me here. Still crowded, but not nearly as bad.
• From right there at the bottom of the bridge - the crowds.  As you move from neighborhood to neighborhood, how the crowds change - in level of noise, manner of dress, everything.  Such an amazing city.
• The Queensboro Bridge.  Carpeting over grates at about mile 17 or so.  Not such a comfortable run at that point, but the crowds on the other side!
• Finally coming into Central Park with about 4 miles to go.  Like coming home.  
• WHY ARE THEY MAKING ME LEAVE THE PARK TO GO ON 59TH STREET!  I KNOW IT'S ONLY AN EXTRA 50 YARDS OR SOMETHING BUT I DON'T WANT TO GO!  I WANT TO TURN HERE AND STAY ON THE PATH!
• Gosh darn, I hate all this irregular pavement and stuff to get back on the Park path.  WHY COULDN'T I HAVE JUST STAYED ON THE PARK PATH IN THE FIRST PLACE!  
• Almost there, and then a great finish line.

The NY Times map is like a time lapse photo sequence taken from a car, except for the parts on the Central Park path.  It can't do the course justice, because the course is about the people at least as much as the scenery, and it's just a business day in NYC.  But this is still a cool link.  Have a look.

Sarah Palin's book deal

According to Politico, Sarah Palin only got $1.25 M for her book deal.  I have to say this surprises me.  I expected it would have been bigger.

'Nuther Newton Update and Boston

I am pretty excited.  Today in the mail I received confirmation of my Boston marathon entry.  It'll be the 114th running on April 19, 2010.  This means that this winter, I will focus mainly on running.  My secondary goal will be building bike power through shorter interval workouts, and swimming will take a bit of a back seat until spring.

By the time I write this, I've been running in the Newtons for the better part of 5 weeks.  I have allowed my workload to climb up to the ~6 hour/week mark.  No planning in particular yet, except for the general goal that by mid-December I want to be comfortably running 35-40 mi/week consistently and having a couple spins.  This will set me up for a marathon buildup of about 16 weeks.

Lengthening my runs by about a mile at a time, I can now consistently run an hour in the Newtons without feeling muscular fatigue.  I am no longer feeling pain in the soleus, and I have extended my long run up to about 11 miles in them.  I've put almost 100 miles in them total. The pace of my running has been unexceptional - certainly I would not attribute any particular pace to the Newtons (other than it's still hard to run VERY slowly in them).  The stride feels quite natural now.

Despite this progress, it seems that I am something of a slow adapter.  There is no doubt in my mind that there are simply different muscles involved here and that I need to strengthen them.  I am still sometimes getting some dull aches in my upper hamstrings the day after a longer run.  It's not enough to be a problem, but enough that I notice when I'm sitting.

Another thing I really notice is that it makes a much bigger difference to me whether I stretch properly.  For now, I believe that this simply has to do with the same need for strengthening that I feel otherwise. I called the folks at Newton, taking them up on their offer to chat, and I spoke to someone who seemed quite knowledgeable and reasonable.  Except that she hadn't dealt with too many people with dull hamstring aches.  Oh well.

At the very least, this has been a very interesting project/experiment to watch myself go through.  I think it's going to turn out well.

Political Cynicism 101 - McCain/Palin

There's really nothing more I need to add to this, other than the remark that it shows to what lengths people will go to elect their guy.

I've been clear that I thought Palin was a disqualifying choice by McCain, who was probably not such a bad guy that would have had a better shot at winning in another year.  But the fact that his campaign leader (Steve Schmidt) shares my opinion but still defends the choice....  Ouch.

Quick thoughts on the Nobel Prize

I didn't hear or read a lot of news yesterday, the day Barack Obama was given the Nobel Peace Prize, but you didn't have to hear or read a lot to figure out that a lot of people generally disposed to like BHO were a bit mystified or surprised, and a lot of people who dislike BHO were very angry and thought it wasn't just a surprise, but completely undeserved.

I'm not going to argue that it was obvious BHO should get the Nobel Prize.  I was surprised, and frankly, I was not sure that it was time yet.  But I do have a thought on the right wing reaction.

As far as I can tell, the prize was given in large part for the transformation BHO has wrought on world opinion of the USA.  We are relatively blind to that here, but the survey statistics are pretty dramatic.

However, the right wing, by and large, just doesn't care about world opinion of the USA.  As a matter of political theory, they think that we should act in our own interest and not particularly care what anyone thinks  (e.g., see invasion of Iraq).  I say that not as a criticism, but simply as an observation, and many of them would candidly agree (surely Tony Blankley would say exactly this, wouldn't he?).  Part of this has been accomplished by "not being Bush", but the transformation of the diplomatic outlook has certainly gone well beyond that.

As a matter of outlook then, if you don't care what the world or world leaders think, and if the major accomplishment of BHO has been to change something you don't care about, then he has accomplished nothing of worth....

Miscellaneous Rants: The Post-Game soccer "treat"

I'm an official with the local soccer club, so various vendors send me advertisements and the like.  One thing I get is offers for fundraisers, which are sometimes marketing devices for companies; and sometimes these marketing devices are win-win deals that are ok.  But many of them are not good for the club, as far as I am concerned, and we do not pursue them all.


Today, I got an email from someone with a company that is marketing a food product as " [a] great post match nutrition source for the players, offering carbohydrates to refuel and key nutrients from whole grains, real fruit, and nuts."  This product is probably reasonably healthful, but COME ON.  Kids who play 2/3 of a 60 minute soccer match on a small field DO NOT NEED TO REFUEL!

Soccer should be about fitness and fun (and soccer).  There is no resisting the "treat" mentality at the end of a game.  I personally don't like it, and always bring fruit.  But this kind of marketing is just disingenuous.  Kids of the age that get post-game "treats" can't be spending more than 200-300 calories in their games and just don't need to "refuel".  Please, if you want to give your kid a snack, fine...but don't rationalize that s/he needs to "refuel" just because of a little exercise.  They aren't exactly running marathons out there!  Exercise is not an excuse to eat unnecessarily.

Finally, I did get something great from my kids' swim team about this, published by the American Swimming Coaches Association.  The newsletter is below.  The part in italics was added by the local coach.  Someone gets it.

Carbohydrate Loading

 

By Keith B. Wheeler, Ph.D. And Angeline M. Cameron

 

Question:   What exactly is carbohydrate loading?  Is it appropriate for age group swimmers?

Answer:  Carbohydrate loading refers to the process by which the carbohydrate (glycogen) stores in an athlete's active muscles are increased significantly above normal levels.  This loading of carbohydrate in the muscles is accomplished through a combination of training and diet manipulation.

Specific techniques for carbohydrate loading have changed since the method was developed in Sweden.  The original program consisted of 7 days of dietary management, beginning with exhaustive exercise bouts on the 1st day, followed by 3 days of extremely low carbohydrate consumption.  The next 3 days consisted of an extremely high carbohydrate intake that caused the muscles to super increase their carbohydrate stores.  In some people, this regimen produced nausea, fatigue, and diarrhea.  Therefore, less drastic carbohydrate loading regimens were developed and are currently recommended.

Although, when done properly, it does increase muscle-glycogen stores above normal levels, carbohydrate loading is most useful for athletes who are preparing for endurance events such as triathons, marathons, cycling races, or open water long distance swimming.  It should be done only a few times in a year.  A nutritional concern that is more important to an age-group swimmer than carbohydrate loading is consuming enough carbohydrate on a daily basis.  Age-group swimmers should get at least 60% of their daily calories from carbohydrate, which will maintain their muscle glycogen at levels that will support their training.

From a physiology point, as stated at the end of the newsletter, carbohydrate loading is helpful for endurance events lasting longer than 2 hours. With events lasting less than that, there is no need for it, since those are not long enough to deplete normal glycogen storages. In swimming events (from 50s to the mile), the loss of energy that a swimmer experiences is due to a decrease in the muscle cell pH, which takes place because of the accumulation of by-products of the muscle contraction. Therefore, unless you are going for a 10K swim, we would not recommend carbohydrate loading, neither for age-groupers or senior swimmers.