Banned to Alaska

The news yesterday was that Ted Stevens conceded his senate race to Democrat Mark Begich.  Honestly, outside of removing a corrupt old hand who didn't listen to anyone, it's not clear yet that Begich will be a senate leader. 

But what he has done is kept Sarah Palin in Alaska.  No Sarah the Senator, at least for now.

We'll see how likely she is to stay there based on her travel schedule over the next 18 months.  She  matches well with the Iowa Republican party (in large part rural and conservative Christian) and could do well in the Iowa Caucuses.  The Iowa Caucuses don't choose presidents, or necessarily even the nominee (ask Pres. Huckabee and Gebhardt, for example), but they do narrow the field.  In 2008, the Democratic survivors were Obama and Clinton.  Edwards essentially tied Clinton, but everyone knew he had staked everything on Iowa and hadn't won.  That, in combination with Obama's headline-grabbing win, was enough to effectively knock him out.  On the Republican side, Huckabee and Romney got tickets.  I think McCain was a special case, in that he skillfully played his knowledge that he wouldn't do well in Iowa but could make a comeback in New Hampshire.

The point remains, though, that Palin could place well in Iowa, based on her appeal to its Republicans.  The value of that ticket to New Hampshire would depend on the rest of the field and how the next four years go.  But watch the Des Moines airport over the next while to see if she's thinking the same thing.